Tuesday, November 6, 2012

What to Watch for Tonight

Courtesy of Jay DeSart.

Final Forecast

Jay has finished gathering the last of the state and national polling data and we now have a final forecast:

Electoral College:   Obama 303,  Romney 235

National Popular Vote (two-party):  Obama 51.4%,  Romney 48.6% 

Based state and national polls, as well as historical patterns of party support in the states, Mitt Romney has a tough road to 270.  It's certainly not impossible for him to get there, but he has many more obstacles to overcome than Obama does.  Romney's best prospect for stealing states from the Obama column are Virginia and Colorado, both of which turned blue in our model in just the last couple of days.  Even if he picks up these states, Romney would still need to win Ohio, or some combination of other states to get to 270.  If he does pick up Ohio, this could go well into the night. Obama's best chance for a pick up is Florida, which has been consistently but just barely in the Romney column in our model throughout the the last month of polling.  If Obama picks up Florida, it will likely be an early evening.

Of course, it goes without saying that if something completely unexpected happens (Romney picks up Pennsylvania? Obama picks up North Carolina) it is going to be an interesting evening.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Almost There

Jay and I hope to have the final forecast by late tomorrow morning.  We're waiting to incorporate polls from late today and anything that comes in tomorrow morning.   Right now, we're at 290 Electoral Votes for Obama to 248 for Romney, and Obama taking 51.4% of the national two-party popular vote.