|National Two-Party Vote : Obama 53.1%|
Electoral College: Obama 332, Romney 206
- In our data set, from 1992-2008, there were 164 states in which one of the candidates had a lead outside the margin of error (based on the average statewide sample size) in the state polling average. The leader went on to win in 160 of those cases (98%).
- If you throw caution to the wind (ignore the margin of error) and make predictions just based on which candidate is ahead in the September poll average, the polls predict correctly in 220 of the 250 cases (87.5%).